Monday, January 03, 2005

"If and Only If" Of Economic Prosperity of a Nation

  1. Existence of individual property rights.
  2. Acceptance of Scientific Rationalism
  3. Existence of Capital markets
  4. Efficient transportation and Communications

William Bernstein proposes above list as the sufficient and necessary conditions (known in mathematics as if and only if) for nation's economic prosperity.

Angus Maddison's study of the economic growth from the beginning of agricultural crescent to today claims that GDP percapita since Roman empire has stagnated at ~$400 until 1820. Post 1820s, in Holland and then in Britain the sufficient and necessary conditions for prosperity were realized resulting in an unending generation of wealth and first time in history economic growth consistently outpaced population growth.

What is are the lessons for USA in these conditions in globalization economy with respect to China and India:

  1. Aggressive implementation and negotiation on Intellectual property in China, India and other developing nations.
  2. Improved acceptance of scientific rationalism, e.g. support for stem cell research.
  3. Incentives for investment in improved communications/logistics technologies.